Despite bullish momentum in the broader crypto space, altcoins have largely remained stagnant–a break from patterns seen in previous market cycles. Analysts are now outlining why the long‑awaited “altseason” failed to materialize and why Bitcoin continues to overshadow the rest of the market.

BTC’s Momentum Leaves Altcoins Behind

In past cycles, altcoin seasons typically began when investors rotated capital out of Bitcoin to chase higher gains in alternative assets. But this time, Bitcoin’s dominance has only grown stronger. According to analyst Darkfrost, the current gap between Bitcoin’s and altcoins’ market cap growth reflects a lack of momentum shift.

Darkfrost examined the 30‑day and 365‑day moving averages (MAs) for Bitcoin and the top 20 altcoins. While BTC’s short‑term MA shows continued growth, many altcoins have stagnated. The gap in momentum between the two echoes a similar divergence observed in October 2023–a period that saw a fleeting altcoin rally before Bitcoin reclaimed control.

At present, no reversal signal is visible. The analyst concluded that until short‑term altcoin metrics decisively outperform longer‑term trends, a proper altseason remains out of reach.

Token Oversupply Creates Drag on the Market

Ali Martinez points to a different, yet critical issue: oversaturation. With over 36.5 million tokens now circulating, demand has been spread thin across an ever‑growing landscape of digital assets.

By contrast, the 2017‑18 altseason featured just 3,000 active altcoins, and the 2013‑14 cycle had fewer than 500. This explosive increase in token volume, Martinez argues, dilutes capital inflows and leaves individual coins struggling for visibility and traction.

What Comes Next?

Without a clear trigger–whether from institutional adoption, major protocol upgrades, or structural capital rotation–analysts warn that the altcoin market may remain in Bitcoin’s shadow. For now, Bitcoin continues to lead the charge, while altcoins wait for a shift that may not come this cycle.

See also: Crypto ETPs face $240M outflows as global trade tensions mount