Toncoin appears to be nearing a pivotal moment, with chart patterns suggesting a significant price movement could be imminent. After months of consolidation within a well-defined wedge, analysts are eyeing a possible 40% upward breakout—provided key support levels hold.

The five-month wedge structure is defined by gradually descending resistance and firm ascending support. After closing May with a push into the narrowest section of this range, Toncoin bounced from the lower trendline, briefly dipping below $3 before recovering to $3.13.

The rebound aligns with a noticeable slowdown in sell pressure and a resurgence in liquidity inflows, as confirmed by the Money Flow Index.

Sentiment Shifts as Open Interest Rises Sharply

Trading data reveals a dip in outflows across spot markets, indicating waning bearish sentiment. Derivatives markets echoed this trend, with futures open interest climbing to its highest point in three months—suggesting renewed investor interest as Toncoin presses deeper into the consolidation zone.

However, rising open interest also increases the risk of sharp downside moves. Should the price falter below its ascending support, liquidation-driven capitulation becomes a possibility—especially in a climate of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.

The Toncoin Fear and Greed Index dropped 17 points in a single day, settling at a neutral 49, highlighting cautious sentiment as traders assess the next direction.

Address Growth and Whale Activity Bolster Long-Term Outlook

On-chain data supports a growing foundation for Toncoin. The final week of May saw a surge in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, alongside a modest increase in active wallets—from 149,930 to over 150,200 holders. Notably, whales control over 67% of the supply, while swing traders account for more than 82.5% of circulating coins—indicating expectations for short- to mid-term gains.

Long-term holders make up just under 15%, while short-term traders represent a mere 2,8%, reinforcing the narrative that Toncoin is positioned for a strategic breakout rather than immediate volatility.

Spot trading data across major exchanges further confirmed strong confidence at current price levels. However, elevated optimism also brings risks—leverage-heavy positions may invite sudden liquidations if whale behavior shifts unexpectedly.

Critical Levels to Watch

If demand accelerates and price breaks through the wedge’s upper boundary, Toncoin could see a rally surpassing 40%. On the flip side, failure to sustain support may result in a pullback toward the $2,8 zone.

For now, all eyes remain on the tightening price action. With technicals and fundamentals aligning, Toncoin’s next move could be decisive—marking either a breakout or a reset.

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