Clearing the Senate earlier this week, the controversial One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) was signed into law on July 4, leaving markets to game out its ripple effects.

While framed as a bipartisan spur for American industries, the legislation became a public battleground for two of crypto’s loudest advocates: Donald Trump and Elon Musk.

As traders digest the dust-up, Arthur Hayes warns the new law could pressure Bitcoin back into five-digits, even as a follow-up package dangles fresh incentives for miners and holders.

Why Trump and Musk Fell Out Over the “Beautiful” Bill

Originally branded as a “One Big Beautiful Bill” that would bundle enlarged tax credits for AI data centers, semiconductor factories, and a 35% write-off for electric-vehicle supply chains, the mega-package sailed through the House in late May.

Elon Musk cheered those early drafts, but when the Senate version scrapped EV perks he turned on the measure, warning on X that the bill will destroy millions of jobs in America. “It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future,” the billionaire said, giving a start to a high-profile, social-media-powered quarrel between him and Trump.

The $90K Bear Case: Why Bitcoin Could Drop 18%

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who earlier predicted a $1 million price target for Bitcoin, now lays out the bear case. He warns that the bill will guide the U.S. Treasury to refill its General Account, siphoning liquidity from risk assets such as crypto. Bitcoin might drop to $90,000 before resuming its up-trend—a slide of roughly 18 % from current levels.

Bulls counter that record spot-ETF inflows should eclipse any temporary drain. Even Hayes concedes the longer-term trend stays intact: his forecast is for a short, violent flush rather than a structural bear market. “The bull market might be interrupted for a short period of time,” he wrote in a Medium post.

Major altcoins have already responded to the One Big Beautiful Bill becoming law with a price slump. Over the past 24 hours, XRP lost 2.8% of value, Solana dropped 2.6%, and the already struggling DOGE shed 4%. Time will tell whether Bitcoin will follow suit, proving Hayes true.

Miner Tax Cuts Miss the Bus—But the Next Train Is Coming

One positive change brought by the OBBB was to the bonus-depreciation math for miners. The new law reinstates and makes permanent 100% first-year bonus depreciation for any “qualified property” placed in service after Jan 19, 2025—a category that already covers ASIC rigs.

The rule’s permanence removes the post-2026 phase-out miners had been bracing for, smoothing cash-flow planning just as they confront higher power prices and the next round of hash-rate expansion.

What didn’t make the cut was a Lummis–Wyden amendment that would have clarified the tax status of mined Bitcoin held on balance sheets, treating it the same way as self-mined gold until it is sold. Lobbyists say that fix may resurface in a standalone crypto-tax bill later this year.

“In order to maintain our competitive edge, we must change our tax code to embrace our digital economy, not burden digital asset users,” Senator Cynthia Lummis said. “We cannot allow our archaic tax policies to stifle American innovation.”

Another sweetener revived in the Lummis bill is a capital-gains exemption for day-to-day crypto spending. Under the proposal, any digital-asset purchase or payment under $300, such as a gas fee, would dodge capital-gains paperwork, up to a yearly cap of $5,000.

The carve-out would not apply to buying cash-equivalents like stablecoins, income-producing assets, or business equipment, but advocates say it would finally let Americans swipe crypto like a debit card without fearing an IRS headache: something lobbyists from Coinbase to the Chamber of Digital Commerce have pushed for since 2017.

But until the new bill is passed, balance sheets remain tight, and any dip toward $90K could force distressed sales, adding another bearish layer to Hayes’ thesis.