Bitcoin has regained ground above the $100,000 level after briefly dipping below it for the first time in months. The decline was triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. As fears over a broader regional conflict mounted, the crypto market experienced a sharp downturn before quickly stabilizing.

Market Volatility Follows Military Escalation

The initial sell-off pushed Bitcoin down nearly 4% to a multi-week low of $98,615 on June 22. Ethereum and Solana also suffered significant losses. The airstrikes, confirmed by President Donald Trump, heightened investor anxiety as Iran responded by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz—an oil trade route critical to global markets. Concerns over oil surging past $120 and U.S. inflation jumping toward 5% contributed to capital fleeing risky assets.

Roughly $1 billion in long positions were liquidated, and the crypto market lost $40 billion in value within hours. Investors pivoted toward traditional safe havens like gold and the dollar. Still, Bitcoin rebounded rapidly, with daily trading volume surging 75.8% to over $48 billion, and derivatives volume climbing 67% to $136 billion—signaling a return of speculative interest despite residual caution.

Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Bias

Despite the price bounce, Bitcoin’s near-term outlook remains technically fragile. The asset is trading below its 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages, and it hovers under the Bollinger Bands’ midline. These signals suggest weak momentum and continued pressure near the $98,000 support level.

Momentum indicators remain mixed. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 39, indicating a weak market but not oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the stochastic RSI and oscillator both show early buy signals. However, the 10-day momentum and MACD remain bearish, keeping expectations muted in the absence of positive catalysts.

Outlook Hinges on Geopolitical and ETF Dynamics

If geopolitical risks diminish, Bitcoin could attempt a retest of the $105,000-$106,000 resistance zone. Analysts, however, warn that intensified conflict—especially with Iranian retaliation—could drag the price down to $92,000 or lower. Much will depend on the pace of diplomatic resolution and the resilience of Bitcoin ETF inflows amid continued market pressure.

As in previous crises, the next phase for Bitcoin will likely be dictated by global macro events and investor sentiment around safe-haven versus risk assets. Until clarity emerges, volatility and cautious trading are expected to persist.

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