Bitcoin has experienced a turbulent yet bullish trajectory in recent days, driven by escalating geopolitical developments in the Middle East and sustained institutional demand through U.S.-listed spot ETFs.

The dominant cryptocurrency plunged to an intra-day low of $98,200 after it was claimed that U.S military bombed Iranian targets causing a panic across the market.

Sentiment however began to turn around after the news of ceasefire talks came in sending Bitcoin on a steep reverse. In the past three days, BTC has soared by almost 9 percent, and is at about the former all-time high of $112,000.

BlackRock, Fidelity Lead ETF Capital Surge

This recovery indicates the resilience of Bitcoin towards geopolitical shocks and the rising powers of institutional investment. According to a recent report by K33 Research, published on Tuesday, with an R² value of 0.80, written a 30-day correlation between ETF flows and Bitcoin returns, a strong connection implies that ETF activity is now a significant market determinant.

Bitcoin Rallies Despite Geopolitical Tensions and ETF Surge

The 24 June was a major milestone as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $588.6 million, the most in a single day this month and the 11th consecutive day with positive inflows, the longest streak since December 2024.

Farside Investors ranked the top inflow chart, including the iShares Bitcoin Trust fund (IBIT) by BlackRock, which attracted new investments of $436.3million this month. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) came in close behind at $217.6 million.

Smaller gains were recorded by Bitwise and VanEck. Conversely, Grayscale GBTC remained in trouble, recording $85.2 million outflows as it remains under a serious threat of competition by lower-cost ones.

Ethereum-Based ETFs See Mixed Inflows Trends

Exchange-traded funds were not the only institutional activity. Anthony Pompliano, founder of ProCap BTC, LLC, announced this week that his company had purchased Bitcoin in an amount of $386 million, and that it would hold the Bitcoin in anticipation of the company growing in value.

In the meantime, ETFs based on Ethereum brought mixed results. The share of Ether-linked products inflows totaled to 98 million dollars in VanEck (yet reported 26.7 million dollars inflows in Grayscale), thus having a net inflow of 71.3 million dollars.

Technically, second-quarter Bitcoin is still very strong. Having managed to recover to a level of $75,000 in early April and touching a high of $112,000 in May a 49-percent increase the asset went into consolidation period throughout most of June.

Analysts think that this range is creating a bullish flag pattern. The most recent flicker up to the top of this range reinforces that argument, as now many are now converging towards the belief of a convincing break tthrough the resistance.

Once Bitcoin breaks above $112,000, analysts believe it may drive the next bull market, with institutional demand continuing to be strong and more worldwide enthusiasm trickling in.

Bitcoin looks set up to make a perhaps explosive third quarter as geopolitical stresses appear to be cooling and ETF inflows continue to run strong.