The Bitcoin market is currently gripped by uncertainty, with traders closely watching whether the price will surge toward $125,000 or fall back to $90,000.

The ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears, especially in the wake of global geopolitical tensions, has created a volatile yet stagnant trading environment. Analysts continue to monitor key macroeconomic signals and ETF inflows, which have so far failed to provide clear direction.

Bitcoin Faces Market Pressure Despite ETF Inflows

Although Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have absorbed billions in demand, they have not succeeded in lifting prices meaningfully. The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to maintain interest rates and its hawkish outlook have added to investor caution.

Moreover, European tariff deadlines and global trade tensions contribute to a lack of confidence. Analysts at QCP Capital suggest that the market is pricing in short-term pullbacks, pointing to declining volatility as a key signal.

Despite over $24 billion in ETF demand since mid-April and $388 million in recent inflows, Bitcoin’s price remains range-bound. 10x Research criticizes the overly optimistic narrative that ignores negative signals, arguing that this imbalance prevents reliable growth. With market players wary of external risks, ETF momentum alone is not enough to drive a breakout.

Optimism Meets Resistance as Bulls Eye $125K

While bearish sentiment persists, some experts remain bullish. Robert Kiyosaki has once again made bold projections, claiming Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.

Other market voices like Cathie Wood and Arthur Hayes also highlight institutional demand and reserve accumulation as bullish indicators. Lark Davis identifies a symmetrical triangle formation on Bitcoin’s chart, suggesting a breakout target of $125,000.

However, this optimistic view depends on buyers maintaining critical technical support levels. If negative pressure dominates, a breakdown toward $90,000 becomes plausible.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades expects a significant move soon, while Scott Melker notes that fear-driven hedging continues as traders brace for potential conflict-related volatility. A move outside the current range of $103,500 to $109,000 may define Bitcoin’s next direction.

Volume Decline and FOMC Aftermath Weigh on Momentum

Following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $104,675, showing little volatility.

Trading volumes fell by 13% over 24 hours, signaling reduced engagement from market participants. Open interest in BTC futures also declined slightly, reflecting a dip in sentiment across derivative markets.

CME and Binance reported modest drops in futures activity, underlining the market’s cautious tone. With price action locked in a narrow band and technical indicators offering mixed signals, traders are left waiting for confirmation of a new trend. Until then, uncertainty continues to dominate, with both upside potential and downside risk remaining on the table.

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