Bitcoin’s current price action hovers near critical Fibonacci support levels, with traders closely watching for signs of either consolidation or a breakout. Analysts suggest that the next cycle top could land in either September 2025 or March 2026, based on long-term moving averages and past cycle behavior.

Crucial Support Levels to Watch

BTC is now approaching a major retracement zone after a rejection from the upper boundary of a falling wedge. Key support sits at $104,180 and $102,435. A breakdown below these levels may open the door to further downside, while a sustained bounce could trigger a rally toward $109,787, $113,071, and $115,966.

The $100,000 mark remains a psychological pivot. A breakout above it, supported by strong trading volume, could confirm bullish continuation and lead to higher targets within the current market cycle.

Historical Cycles Suggest Timing for Next Top

Analyst Egrag Crypto, building on insights from IntoCryptoverse’s Benjamin Cowen, identifies a recurring pattern where Bitcoin’s all-time highs align with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA). This correlation has held through past market cycles, although some variations—such as a 42-day delay in one cycle—underline the inherent volatility.

Using this model, the next peak could emerge as early as September 2025 or as late as March 2026. These projections, while speculative, are grounded in observable long-term trends.

Though the technical setup points to a potential breakout, volume confirmation remains essential. The next few weeks could determine whether BTC continues consolidating or begins a new upward leg. As always, macroeconomic forces and investor sentiment will be critical in shaping the eventual path of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

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